Market Update 2023

• On February 5, sanctions on Russian oil went into effect. This has caused a paradigm shift in transportation flows: crude oil cargoes are purchased from more distant suppliers, increasing the tons consumed per mile and forcing longer routes.
• Despite falling inflation and lower levels than in the United States or the United Kingdom, the European Central Bank plans to continue raising interest rates to ensure a timely return in the near future.
• Port congestion in northern Europe is easing.

Maritime transport

• Maritime traffic in the Mediterranean continues to improve and stabilize at pre-pandemic levels.
• Port congestion remains fluid: the ports of Le Havre and Southampton are the only ones to have experienced growth in waiting times.
• There is less capacity for imports and European domestic lines. Improvement is expected on lines to Asia, where the market has returned to pre-pandemic situations and volumes are expected to grow.
• On the export front, demand has eased and congestion on lines to Asia and North America has reduced. Space is available, and no operational bottlenecks are expected beyond the expected blank departures after the Chinese New Year.

Air transport

• Export demand has increased along with tariffs. To compensate for this increase, indirect transport options with one or more links have also emerged to reduce costs, but with longer transit times.
• Carrying capacity remains stable.

• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, exceeding 2022 levels by 4.5 percent.
• Sanctions on Russian oil will lead to increased transportation flows between the United States and Europe for crude oil supplies.

Maritime transport

• February is expected to be the weakest month for maritime imports since May 2020, following a January with the best quarterly data.
• The West Coast of the United States remains fluid in terms of congestion and traffic times. The ports of Oakland and Los Angeles have waiting times of 1 to 3 days.
• The situation on the East Coast has improved in terms of congestion, with reduced waiting times and ships.
• Negotiations continue between dockworkers and employers at West Coast ports. Carriers fear a repeat of the chaotic situation of 2021, while tariffs are returning to 2019 levels.

Air transport

• Geopolitical tensions with Russia and China will lead toincreased lines to Europe.
• Export demand remains stable to all markets.
• Capacity is being increased, especially on routes to Europe.

• The Chinese government remains steadfast in easing restrictions against COVID-19, and after the Lunar New Year all remaining measures were lifted.
• The easing of measures has led to a significant increase in demand in the air market, resulting in higher prices.

Maritime transport

• The capacity and availability of cargo ships in Chinese ports has been maintained. There are currently about 345 cargo ships between Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian.
• Despite a slight increase in congestion, the ports of Ningbo and Shanghai maintain waiting times of 3 and 1 day, respectively, while the port of Yantian operates without delays.
• Chinese ports' freight rates have returned to pre-Covid levels. The SCFI for Asia-Mediterranean ports routes reached its lowest record last week, being up to three times lower than in February 2022.
• There is space available on routes to Europe, the United States, LATAM, and Intra Asia, and no bottle necks are expected.

Air transport

• The Lunar New Year has not had the desired effect, and shippers are hesitant to re-establish trade lines with China due to geopolitical tensions and the high cost of operations (compared to shipping).
• Demand and rates have declined, with a large volume of freight opting for sea transport because of the freight rate. Supply is significantly higher.